Emesso: 2015 Jan 15 1238 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
15 Jan 2015 | 142 | 013 |
16 Jan 2015 | 140 | 007 |
17 Jan 2015 | 137 | 007 |
NOAA AR 2257 has rotated over the west limb, without it solar activity has decreased significantly in the past hours. It produced still the strongest flare of the last 24h, an M2.2 flare with peak at 12:58 UT on January 14. Only minor C-class flaring has been observed after. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet. Solar wind speed is about 450 km/s with magnetic field magnitude of 6 nT. The CME from January 12 can still arrive today and produce active conditions, with isolated minor storm period.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 043, based on 06 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 142 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 009 |
AK Wingst | 008 |
Estimated Ap | 007 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 056 - Based on 19 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 | 1230 | 1258 | 1308 | ---- | M2.2 | 50/2257 | III/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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