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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2015 Feb 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 04 Feb 2015 until 06 Feb 2015
Brillamenti solari

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

10cm fluxAp
04 Feb 2015149007
05 Feb 2015149007
06 Feb 2015149007

Bulletin

Solar activity was moderate with NOAA AR 2277 (Catania 78, 79) producing an M1.2 flare peaking at 02:15UT. Apart from that, only some minor C flares were detected, mostly from NOAA 2277 (Catania 78, 79), but also from Catania 82 (NOAA 2280). NOAA region 2277 continues to carry opposite polarity field is its intermediate region. A new region rotated onto disc in the northern hemisphere and is numbered NOAA 2281. We expect C flaring for the coming days, especially from NOAA region 2277 with also a chance for an M flare. There is a slight chance for a proton event should 2277 produce significant flaring. A filament eruption occurred at 10N35E at 12:00 UT February 3. The associated CME was directed northeast and narrow. SoHA LASCO C2 showed two westbound CME's respectively souhwest from 3:12 UT onwards and northwest from 5:24 onwards. Both are judged to be originating from on or behind the west limb. No Earth directed CMEs were recorded. Solar wind conditions have been recovering from the influence of a high speed stream. solar wind speed has dropped continuously from around 580 km/s to about 470 km/s. Total magnetic field was roughly in the 2.5 to 4 nT range. with Bz variable but predominantly negative. The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 2-3). A further decrease to nominal solar wind conditions is expected with associated and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 074, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Feb 2015

Wolf number Catania123
10cm solar flux149
AK Chambon La Forêt017
AK Wingst017
Estimated Ap017
Estimated international sunspot number062 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
04020802150221N10W14M1.22N78/2277III/1

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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