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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2015 Mar 16 1307 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Mar 2015	113	016
17 Mar 2015	112	024
18 Mar 2015	112	028

Bulletin

Solar activity continued to be dominated by NOAA active region 2297 and reached moderate levels. The region produced 2 M1 flares over the last 24 hours. The strongest was an M1.6 flare peaking at 10:58 UT. The second one, an M1.2 flare, peaked at 23:22UT. Both flares were associated with coronal dimmings. Possible associated CMEs can not yet be assessed with the available coronagraph images. Yesterdays CME caused a rise in the >10 MeV protons which seemed to settle down but later increased again, possibly due to the CME shock front. The event threshold was however not passed. A glancing blow of this CME event is expected to arrive at Earth late March 17. Active region 2297 remains the only prominent region on disc with M flares likely from this region. Being positioned in the western hemisphere, this also comes associated with an increased chance for a proton event. Around 17:30UT a transient was observed in the solar wind conditions. During a short period total magnetic field reached values of close to 15 nT, with Bz strongly positive. Solar wind speed varied only slightly during that period. Solar wind conditions restored to nominal afterwards. Around 5:00UT magnetic field suddenly became enhanced again up to levels of around 13 nT. The associated Bz was first negative down to -12nT but was later mostly positive. The solar wind speed then also increased from values of around 330 km/s to 380 km/s. The magnetic field phi angle was variable throughout the period. Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet to unsettled (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-3), with the unsettled conditions occurring on March 16. The first short episode of enhanced solar wind conditions may be due to a glancing blow of one of the CMEs released by AR 2297 over the period of March 10, March 11. The second period of enhanced conditions which is still ongoing may be associated to the late influence of a slow high speed stream from the equatorial coronal hole that crossed the central meridian early last week. Continued influence of the slow high speed stream may be anticipated over the rest of the day with late tomorrow a glancing blow by the CME of March 15. In both cases possible impact is expected to be initially minor, probably limited to active geomagnetic conditions. The extension of the southern negative polarity coronal hole may later, from March 18 onwards add to the geomagnetic activity

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 043, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Mar 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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