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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2015 Aug 26 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Aug 2015	125	012
27 Aug 2015	127	014
28 Aug 2015	129	020

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low with only some low level C flaring from AR2403. The strongest event was a C2.8 flare peaking at 23:53UT. AR 2403 seems to stabilize and decay but there remains a likelihood for M flaring or possibly an X flare. The warning condition for proton events is correspondingly maintained. Coronagraph data show a slow eruption towards the SouthWest starting yesterday afternoon. It is not believed to have any influence on Earth. Solar wind speed stabilized at around 420 km/s while total magnetic field increased from a nominal 5nT to around 10 nT currently. Bz was predominantly negative with peaks close to -8nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (local K Dourbes 2-3, with NOAA Kp reaching 4 for the 6-9UT and 9-12UT intervals). Solar wind conditions are expected to initially remain at these levels while increasing later tomorrow (August 27) with the expected arrival of a corotating interaction region and high speed stream. Geomagnetic conditions may reach active conditions in response.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 045, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Aug 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	121
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	062 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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