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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2015 Nov 11 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Nov 2015	111	019
12 Nov 2015	112	020
13 Nov 2015	114	015

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low, there have been 2 C-class flares recorded. Most activity has occurred around Active Region (AR) 2443 (Hsx-Alpha), the largest flare being a C3.7 Class flare peaking at 14:11 UT. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was been slowly decreasing following its small enhancement (3.5 pfu) on 2015-Nov-09. ARs 2448 and 2451 (located near disk center) appear stable, with small amounts of flux emergence. ARs 2449 and 2450 have shown some evolution with flux emergence, and may produce more activity. AR 2443 has rotated over the West limb. There were no Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the past 24 hours. Flaring is expected to continue at the B-class level with a possibility of C-class flares and a small possibility of an M-class flare. The solar wind speed has remained relatively constant over the past 24 hours, around 700 km /s. The total magnetic field has remained around 5 nT, and the Bz component has oscillated between -5 nT and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between quiet and active over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 3-6, local K Dourbes 2-5). A large (positive) coronal hole is currently centered at N30W60 and has been the source of enhanced solar wind speeds over the past few days. We're currently passing out of the High Speed Stream (HSS). The CME recorded at 14:00 UT on 2015-Nov-09 is expected to hit the Earth system around 23:00 UT this evening (2015-Nov-11), this is only expected to be a glancing blow but may increase geo activity.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	105
10cm solar flux	105
AK Chambon La Forêt	059
AK Wingst	038
Estimated Ap	044
Estimated international sunspot number	076 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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