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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2015 Dec 21 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 21 Dec 2015 until 23 Dec 2015
Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
21 Dec 2015126021
22 Dec 2015133006
23 Dec 2015138005

Bulletin

An unnumbered sunspot group that just appeared at the east solar limb produced the most of the flaring activity in the past 24 hours, including 9 C-class flares and 2 M-class flares. The strongest one was the M2.8 flare peaking at 01:03 UT today. It was accompanied only with a narrow CME that will not arrive at the Earth. We expect more M-class flares from this group, with a small chance for an X-class event. The Earth is now inside the trailing part of the ICME that arrived after the interplanetary shock detected on December 19. Currently the solar wind speed is around 360 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is around 17 nT. The north-south IMF component Bz just turned northward, so the geomagnetic storm conditions ended, with Dourbes reporting K = 3 and NOAA reporting Kp = 4 during the last interval. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are probable in the coming hours, with isolated intervals of minor storm possible (although unlikely) in case of Bz turning consistently southward again.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 017, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux117
AK Chambon La Forêt106
AK Wingst065
Estimated Ap070
Estimated international sunspot number019 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

III/2
DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
21005201030111----M2.8--/----V/2III/1II/1
21100910191032N04E85M1.11N--/----

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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