Emesso: 2015 Dec 23 1230 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
23 Dec 2015 | 135 | 007 |
24 Dec 2015 | 135 | 006 |
25 Dec 2015 | 135 | 006 |
There are currently five sunspot groups visible, as identified by Catania. The most interesting group is Catania group 5 (NOAA 2473), which produced an M4.7 flare (peaking at 0:40 UT today) and two C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The M4.7 flare was associated with a dimming, a type II radio burst and an eastward CME. The CME had an apparent width of 70 degrees and an estimated projected speed of 530 km/s (as reported by CACTus). First analysis indicates that no influence on the Earth environment should be expected. Flaring at the M-level is expected to continue, in particular from the Catania group 5, with a slight chance for an X-class flare. The solar wind speed is varying between 400 and 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is below 10 nT, with a fluctuating Bz component. Quiet to unsettled conditions (K < 4) were noted by Dourbes and NOAA. These geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 063, based on 14 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 082 |
10cm solar flux | 130 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 017 |
AK Wingst | 013 |
Estimated Ap | 012 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 069 - Based on 16 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
23 | 0023 | 0040 | 0052 | S22E63 | M4.7 | 1F | 05/2473 | II/2IV/2 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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