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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2017 Jul 14 1419 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Protoni solari

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Jul 2017	093	005
15 Jul 2017	094	007
16 Jul 2017	094	019

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2665 (Catania number 36) and former Catania sunspot group 37 (numbered only at 12-July-2017) produced numerous B and five C-class flares during the past 24 hours around the midnight [20:08 UT - 00:50 UT]: C8.4; C2.0; C5.9 ; C3.0; C1.3. Four fast and narrow coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in southwest and northeast direction have been detected by CACTus initiated by these C-class flares. These CMEs do not have any geoeffective component. The most geoeffective event of the period was a full halo CME, visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from 01:25 UT today (14-July-2017). The CME is initiated by M2.4 class flare (START: 01:07 UT; PEAK: 02:09 UT) and subsequent activity of NOAA 2665 NOAA and 2666 ARs that are currently leaving solar disk center area. The detailed analysis of the CME speed gives the value 900 km/s (plane-of- the-sky speed). Further acceleration of the CME is very likely. The arrival of a shock wave associated to this CME at the Earth can be expected from the day three (16 July-2017) around noon (estimated with the Drag Based Model). The > 10 MeV and > 50 MeV proton fluxes at 1 AU have risen today at 04:10 UT. The > 10 MeV flux has reached the critical threshold of 10 pfu at 07:10 UT, and its current value is 14 pfu. Energetic protons for this Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event are accelerated by the shock wave (obvious from 3hrs delay between flare and proton detection). We expect more flaring activity up to the M-level tomorrow.

Solar wind parameters were at nominal level. Total magnetic field remained below 4.1 nT, while Bz component was fluctuating between +/-3.5 nT over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased even more from 415 km/s till 360 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet. Planetary index Kp remained stable around Kp = 1, while the local K index (Dourbes) was fluctuating between 1 and 3. The geomagnetic field may rise till unsettled levels (Kp =3) later today (14-Jul-2017), while on the day 3 (16-Jul-2017 from 12:00 UT) minor storm is expected (till Kp =5) due to the 14-July-2017 Halo CME arrival. More > 10 MeV protons may arrive by this time at the Earth with the shock wave.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 056, based on 26 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Jul 2017

Wolf number Catania	050
10cm solar flux	092
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	060 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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