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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2021 Mar 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 04 Mar 2021 until 06 Mar 2021
Brillamenti solari

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
04 Mar 2021074009
05 Mar 2021074027
06 Mar 2021074019

Bulletin

The Sun did not produce any C flares during the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 20%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. Moderate values are possible in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours. There is a chance for moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 615 km/s to about 490 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease further until the expected arrival late on March 4 or on March 5 of a high speed stream associated with a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on March 1.

Quiet to unsettled conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 4, 5 and 6, with a chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5) on March 5 and 6.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 030, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Mar 2021

Wolf number Catania039
10cm solar flux074
AK Chambon La Forêt022
AK Wingst018
Estimated Ap020
Estimated international sunspot number032 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Nessuna

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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