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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2022 May 10 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 May 2022	117	004
11 May 2022	117	007
12 May 2022	117	005

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with multiple low C-class flaring, mainly from active regions NOAA 3006 and NOAA 3007. The strongest detected flare in the period was a C2.9-flare with peak time 07:55 UTC this morning, produced by NOAA 3007 (beta), which now grown in area and increased its number of sun spots. The previously largest and most complex active region, NOAA 3004, has almost fully rotated behind the west limb and is now classified as simple magnetic type alpha. NOAA 3006, currently residing at the central meridian, has increased the complexity of its underlying magnetic field configuration and is now classified as beta-delta. Despite this developments it has produced only low C-class flaring. The active region reported yesterday close to the north-west limb, NOAA 3005, is now rotating over the west limb and is classified as a simple magnetic type alpha. The simple active region at the south-west limb, NOAA 3001 (alpha), has remained stable and quiet. The X-ray flare activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at low levels with high chances for C-class flares and some probability for isolated M-class flaring.

A slow filament eruption in the south-west quadrant was observed around 10:30 UTC this morning going over the south-west limb. The associated eruption is estimated to miss the Earth, but will be further analysed as coronagraph data becomes available. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were at typical levels for slow background solar wind. The solar wind velocity was very steady with values of about 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was at background levels with a maximum value of 6.7 nT and a minimum Bz of -4.7 nT. The B field was switching orientation from the positive to the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to reflect mostly background solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours with a rather low possibility of minor enhancements in case of a weak glancing blow influence from a CME, which left the Sun on May 6th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet with locally a single unsettled period registered over Belgium. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated unsettled periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 054, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 09 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	117
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	073 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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