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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2022 Jun 13 1259 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jun 2022	122	008
14 Jun 2022	126	016
15 Jun 2022	123	010

Bulletin

The strongest flare reported in the last 24 hours was GOES M3.4 flare (peaked 04:07 UT). The long duration flare originated from the NOAA AR 3032 (not numbered by Catania), closely situated to the NOAA ARs 3030 and 3033. These three active regions have all beta configuration of their photospheric magnetic field and they are expected to be the source of the C-class flaring activity in the coming hours. The M-class flares are also possible (with probability larger than 30 percent), in particular from the NOAA AR 3032. The M-class flare was associate with the fast partial halo CME having the projected line of the sight velocity of about 1200 km/s (as reported by CACTUS software). The CME had angular width of about 270 degrees and was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 01:48 UT this morning. The expected arrival of this Earth-directed CME and associated shock wave is in the early afternoon (around 15:00 UT) of June 14.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was under the 1000 pfu threshold, we expect them to remain on these levels in the coming hours. The 24h electron fluence is at normal level and we expect it will stay so in the coming 24 hours.

The simultaneous increase of the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (up to 15 nT) and the solar wind velocity and density observed starting from about 07:00 UT on June 12 is probably the solar wind originating from the small and patchy positive polarity coronal holes observed in the northern hemisphere of the Sun. The compact equatorial coronal hole of positive polarity crossed the central meridian in the mid of the day of June 12. The associated solar wind can be expected at Earth on June 15 late afternoon (around 18:00 UT). The increased solar wind velocity (up to 560 km/s) and the negative value of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (down to -10 nT) induced the interval of active geomagnetic conditions this morning at about 03:00 UT. The local station at Dourbes reported K=4 while NOAA reported Kp=5. The solar wind velocity is still rather high (about 500 km/s), so in combination with the longer interval of the negative Bz component, it can induce the disturbed geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 099, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jun 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	058 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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