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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2022 Oct 26 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Oct 2022	117	002
27 Oct 2022	120	010
28 Oct 2022	122	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels and infrequent, with two C-class flares detected over the last 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3133 (magnetic type Beta) produced both C-class flares and is expected to produce more in the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 3131 (Catania group 73, magnetic type Beta) is also capable of producing C-class flaring activity during the coming 24 hours.

Two front-sided Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed by satellite coronographs, however, none of them are estimated to be geo-effective.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

An equatorial coronal hole of positive polarity started crossing the central meridian today. An associated high speed stream in in-situ solar wind measurements is expected for 29 Oct.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions returned to a slow wind regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed dropped from 430 to 240 km/s, while the total magnetic field (Bt) remained bellow 5 nT, and its North-South (Bz) component ranged between -4 and 4 nT in the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was most of the time directed towards the Sun over the last 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive tomorrow and cause a significant effect to the SW conditions.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp and K Belgium 0-2) over the last 24 hours. The are expected to increase to active conditions in the next 24 hours, since a HSS is expected to arrive some time tomorrow.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 072, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	090
10cm solar flux	116
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	073 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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