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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2022 Nov 14 1257 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Nov 2022	138	007
15 Nov 2022	140	015
16 Nov 2022	142	016

Bulletin

Frequent but low level (low C class) X-ray flaring activity was recorded. Most flares were from NOAA active region 3140. The strongest was a C4.1 flare peaking at 00:44UTC. While NOAA active region 3141 remained the most complex region it was subject to only moderate spot and flux emergence and remained mostly quiet. More significant flux emergence was seen in the intermediate area of NOAA active region 3140. A new small bipolar region numbered NOAA active region 3146 emerged in the Northeastern quadrant. There is a significant chance for M class flaring in the next days, mostly from NOAA active regions 3140 and 3141.

A filament eruption just before noon November 13 from the southern hemisphere near central meridian has an associate CME visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph images form around 12:00UTC. It is narrow and too far off the Sun-Earth line to affect Earth. A further faint North-Western CME is visible shortly after starting around 13:48UTC. It to is judged to be too narrow to reach Earth. Incomplete coronagraph data show a more pronounced CME to the West at 3:36UTC. It will be analysed as more data comes in. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. With the significant chance for M flares from the regions in the northwestern quadrant also comes a small chance for a possible proton event to occur. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Two isolated coronal holes (one with negative polarity in the Northern hemisphere, one with positive polarity in the southern hemisphere) are transiting the western hemisphere and may have an impact on the Solar wind conditions in the following days.

Solar wind conditions were just slightly enhanced with solar wind speed touching just over 500 km/s at times, but now around 430 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was between 5-7nT with a variable north-south component. The orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field showed connection to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). A further decreasing trend is expected over the next 24 hours with then later tomorrow November 15 a possible new enhancement setting in related to either of the two coronal holes currently located in the Western hemisphere, though they are located at fairly high latitude. It is currently unclear how strong an enhancement should be expected.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-2 and local K Dourbes 0-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 48 hours, with from noon November 15 onwards a possibility for an isolated active period.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 092, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Nov 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	101 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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