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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2022 Dec 17 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Dec 2022	166	008
18 Dec 2022	166	024
19 Dec 2022	166	011

Bulletin

As Catania group 17 (NOAA AR 3165) started rotating off the West solar limb, the solar flares activity has returned to almost quiet conditions. There are currently 8 numbered active regions observed on the visible side of the Sun, where NOAA AR 3169 has started rotating across the East solar limb. All of these active regions have a simple configuration of the photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) except for Catania group 21 (NOAA AR 3163) which has a beta-gamma configuration and Catania group 17 (NOAAA 3165), which has beta-delta configuration, but this last group will disappear behind the West solar limb soon. Only two low level M-class flares were recorded in the past 24 hours and a large range of C-class flares. The strongest flare was a M2.4 flare peaking at 14:40UTC on December 16th. The majority of the flares still originated from Catania group 17 (NOAA AR 3153), with NOAA AR 3169 producing some of the recent solar flaring on the East-Northern limb. We expect the solar flaring activity to remain at the same level, with C-class flares expected and with a possibility for M-class flares.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor storm threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours. We expect the conditions to stay at quiet levels.

The solar wind parameters are still reflecting slow solar wind conditions. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was around 320 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field had a magnitude of 5-6nT. Later this evening or early tomorrow morning, we expect the solar wind speed and magnetic field to become enhanced in response to the expected high speed stream associated with the negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, which began to cross the central meridian on Dec 14. Furthermore, an equatorial coronal hole with positive polarity has started to cross the central meridian and the solar wind originating from this coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth from early on Dec 20 onwards.

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active for the next days, due to the arrival of the previously mentioned high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 134, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	119
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	127 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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