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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2022 Dec 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Dec 2022	160	014
30 Dec 2022	160	037
31 Dec 2022	160	026

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity reached moderate levels again. An M1 flare peaked at 7:27UTC. This time from at or beyond the northeastern limb. Further C flaring originated from Catania group 23 (NOAA active region 3169), as in previous days, but also from Catania group 32 (NOAA active region 3177) in the southeast. Catania sunspot group 32 (NOAA active region 3177) appears to be a unipolar group, while the newly emerged Catania group 24 (NOAA active region 3178) developed into a small bipolar region. Catania group 31 (NOAA active region 3176) showed spreading of the magnetic footpoints and was inactive. Catania group 23 (NOAA active region 3169) is now approaching the limb and seems to continue to simplify. All other regions were stable or in decay. Flaring at C level is expected, with also a chance for M-class flaring.

No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached over the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to do so again today. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

A positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has transited the central meridian in the past days and may influence solar wind conditions starting late today or tomorrow.

Solar wind showed a return towards slow solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed decreased to below 400 km/s and is currently at around 430 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly around 5nT with just a recent increase to 6.5nT. The orientation of the magnetic field showed connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun) throughout the period. Solar wind conditions are expected to increase under the influence of the high speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole in the north. This is expected to set in late today or early tomorrow.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp 0-2, local K Dourbes 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled initially, then increasing later today or tomorrow to active with possibly minor storm levels being reached.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 137, based on 03 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	097
10cm solar flux	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	106 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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