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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2023 Feb 13 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Feb 2023	199	004
14 Feb 2023	197	006
15 Feb 2023	196	004

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.2 flare, peaking at 13:44 UT February 12, and was associated with NOAA AR3222 on the north-west limb. This region along with NOAA Region 3213 is now about to rotate over the west limb. Moderate flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3217, which decayed slightly, and from newly numbered NOAA AR 3226 which emerged in the north east quadrant. NOAA AR 3214 showed some evidence of flux emergence, while NOAA ARs 3220 and 3216 remained stable. The remaining regions on the solar disk are all relatively small and have not produced significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of a proton event exceeding the 10pfu threshold, due to the number of complex regions on disk. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached the 1000 pfu threshold briefly and is expected to exceed this threshold again in the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal to moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of the waning influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed decreased from 490 km/s to values around 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic fluctuated ranged between 0 and 5 nT. Bz was mostly negative with a minimum value of -4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly in the negative sector at the start of the period before switching to the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) from 23:50 UT February 12. The solar wind conditions are expected to continue the gradual return to a slow solar wind regime on February 13. There is a chance of a glancing blow from one of the multiple CMEs observed on February 11, which could influence the solar wind conditions from February 14.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next days, with a chance of active conditions related to the possible glancing blow of the CMEs from February 11.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 194, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	200
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	179 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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