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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2023 Feb 16 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Feb 2023	171	029
17 Feb 2023	169	030
18 Feb 2023	172	021

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.1 flare, peaking at 00:43UT February 16. This was associated with an eruption beyond the north east limb, where a new region is about to rotate onto the disk. An M1 flare was also recorded from beyond the north west limb, peak time 21:18 UT February 15, associated with NOAA AR3213 which is now beyond the limb. A long duration C9 flare was also observed near NOAAAR 3216 in the north west, associated with an eruption. NOAA ARs 3220, 3226 and 3214 also produced low level flaring activity. NOAA AR 3226 remains the most complex region on the disk but was mostly stable over the period. NOAA AR 3214 has now rotated off the solar disk. The remaining regions on the solar disk are all relatively simple and have not produced any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely, M-class flares possible and a small chance for X-class flares.

The partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) reported yesterday from February 15 is considered to be Earth directed and is expected to influence the Earth from late on February 17. A CME to the south was observed in LASCO C2 from 01:36 UT February 16, the origin of which is still unclear. A second CME to the north west, from 10:48UT in LASCO C2, related to the long duration C9 flare, is being analyzed to determine if it has an Earth directed component.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ongoing ICME influences. The solar wind speed increased from 300 Km/s to over 480 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field increased from 10nT to 22 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -19nT at 08:10 UT. The interplanetary magnetic field is expected to remain enhanced on February 16 due to the ongoing ICME influence. From late on February 17 another ICME is predicted to impact the Earth environment.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels locally (local K Belgium) and minor storm levels globally (NOAA KP = 5). Active to minor storm conditions are likely on February 16 due to ongoing CME influences, further minor (possibly major) storm conditions are then also possible from late on February 17 due to the predicted arrival of another ICME.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 111, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	192
10cm solar flux	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	027
Estimated Ap	027
Estimated international sunspot number	144 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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