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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2023 May 10 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Protoni solari

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 May 2023	183	032
11 May 2023	186	043
12 May 2023	190	029

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flares of the period were an M4.3 and an M5 flare, peaking at 18:58 and 20:52 UTC May 09, respectively. This first flare was also associated with a Type II and Type IV radio burst and originated from NOAA AR 3296, which was responsible for most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3296 and 3297 remain the most complex regions on disk. NOAA AR 3300 and 3294 were stable, while NOAA AR 3299 decayed into a plage region. Two new regions (NOAA AR 3301 and 3302) have rotated onto the disk over the east solar limb, but these appear to be relatively simple regions. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 coronograph imagery around 19:00 UTC on May 09. The CME was associated with an M4.2 flare from NOAA AR 3296, with peak time 18:58 UTC. The majority of the CME is directed to the north west, but a full halo shock is visible. A preliminary analysis suggests an estimated arrival at Earth late on May 11.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux displayed a decreasing trend at the start of the period, but began to increase again from 22:20 UTC May 09 and is now once again above the 10pfu threshold since 23:40 UTC May 09. It is expected that the proton flux will be above this threshold on May 10 before gradually decreasing on May 11. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux (GOES 16) was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to increase slightly but will likely remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) at the start of the period displayed a trend towards slow solar wind conditions, with a solar wind speed of around 450 km/s. At 22:07 UTC May 09, a shock was observed in the solar wind, likely an ICME arrival associated with the halo CME observed on May 07. The total magnetic field increased from 6 to 14nT and the solar wind speed jumped from to 525 km/s. The solar wind speed and magnetic field continued to increase and reached maximum values of 676 km/s and 19nT, respectively. Bz had a minimum value of -14 nT and was briefly negative between 22:00 and 00:00 UTC, before becoming predominantly positive for the rest of the period. By the end of the period, the solar wind speed has stabilized around 650 km/s and the magnetic field around 10nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next days and may be further enhanced on May 11 due to another ICME predicted arrival and influence form a small positive coronal hole which began to traverse the central meridian on May 08.

The geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm conditions (local K Belgium and NOAA KP = 5) due to the ICME passage. Active to minor storm conditions are expected on May 10, with moderate storm conditions possible from May 11 due to the expected arrival of the partial halo CME from May 09.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 163, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 09 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	177 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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