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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2023 Sep 12 1305 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Sep 2023	176	033
13 Sep 2023	176	011
14 Sep 2023	176	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels with several M-class flares. The first M1.9-class flare occurred in the NOAA Active Region 3425 peaking at 04:26 UTC on September 12. NOAA Active Region 3423 produced the second M2.6-class flare peaking at 07:07 UTC on September 12. NOAA AR 3423 remains complex with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration, NOAA AR 3429 became also complex with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration, and NOAA AR 3431 became a beta-delta magnetic configuration. The other regions have a bipolar with a beta magnetic configuration. The flaring activity is expected to remain at moderate with C-class flare, isolated M-class flares and possible X-class flare although less likely.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

South-East partial halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) was detected in the SOHO/LASCO coronograph images on September 11 at 10:15 UTC with an angular width of about 210 degrees and a projected speed of 300-325 km/s as estimated by the CATus tool. No associated signature on the visible solar disc seen from Earth was identified; therefore we believe that the source region of this CME is far side. Another South-East full halo CME was detected on September 11 at 23:15 UTC with a projected speed estimated by the CATus tool of 512 km/s. No clear associated signature on the visible solar disc seen from Earth was identified; therefore we believe that the source region of this CME was also far side.

Fori coronali

An equatorial polar coronal hole (negative magnetic polarity) has reached the central meridian on September 12. The high-speed streams associated to this equatorial coronal hole is expected to reach Earth in 2-3 days.

Vento solare

The solar wind parameters showed a slow solar wind regime over the past 24 hours: The wind speed was around 400 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was around 5 nT and 8 nT. The southward component (Bz) was fluctuating around -5.0 nT and 7.1 nT being mainly positive. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly positive, i.e., direct outward of the Sun. Around 10:00 UTC, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) rose to values around 20 nT, the density show also a sudden fast increased the phi angle remain positive, and the solar wind did not increase so far. It sudden enhancement is most probably due to the very soon high-speed stream arrival for the Northern (positive magnetic polarity) coronal holes. Thi will be confirmed by monitoring the real time in a couple of hours. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated and the solar wind speed is expected to increase in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet with short period of unsettled condition (NOAA Kp = 3 and K_BEL = 3). Due to the fast and strong enhancement of the solar wind condition most probably due to high-speed stream arrival for the Northern (positive magnetic polarity) coronal holes , minor storm to storm geomagnetic activity may be expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels for the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 158, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Sep 2023

Wolf number Catania	250
10cm solar flux	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	212 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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