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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2023 Oct 04 1248 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Oct 2023	154	007
05 Oct 2023	154	014
06 Oct 2023	154	011

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was quiet with only few small C-class flares beside the number of complex regions on the solar disc visible from Earth. There are currently 9 numbered active regions NOAA AR 3450 (beta-gamma) remain stable and the most magnetically complex regions, all other regions have an alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at quiet to moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated X-class flaring.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) have been detected in the last 24 hours in the available SOHO/LASCO images. A partial halo CME was observed on the East limb at 11:36 UTC on October 03 with a projected speed of about 800 km/s. The analysis indicated that the source was on the far side or the Earth, therefore no impact on the solar wind condition near Earth is expected.

Vento solare

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind condition near Earth was stable with the solar wind parameters showing a slow wind speed regime. The total interplanetary magnetic field was however slightly more elevated ranging between 5.0 nT and 9.5 nT. The Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic fluctuated between positive and negative values with a minimum value of -7.7 nT. The solar wind speed had values varying between 307 km/s and 486 km/s. The phi-angle was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to remain stable in the next 12 hours then later some enhancement due to the wind speed associate to the small coronal holes (2 small positive polarity coronal holes that crossed the central meridian on October 01 and 02) may be observed in the solar wind parameters recorded near Earth.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet with some periods of unsettled conditions (Kp-NOAA, K-Bel 3). Unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours due to some enhancements in the solar wind associated with the wind speed from the small equatorial coronal holes.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the last 24 hours. It expected to mostly remain at background level, however possible rise of the proton flux cannot be fully excluded due to the current number of complex region and the flaring activity on the disc.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remains below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 157, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	161
10cm solar flux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	153 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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