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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2023 Nov 05 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Nov 2023	154	051
06 Nov 2023	153	034
07 Nov 2023	153	036

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and one impulsive M1.8-flare, peak time 11:43 UTC on Nov 5th, from NOAA AR 3480 (beta-gamma). This regions is currently the most complex and active region on the visible solar disc and was responsible for most of the flaring activity. Isolated low C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3472 (beta) which is approaching the west limb and by NOAA AR 3478 (alpha), which remains small and simple. NOAA AR 3474 (beta) has decreased its magnetic complexity and has shown signs of decay as it approaches the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with likely C-class flaring and some chances for isolated M-class flares.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

The coronal mass ejection (CME) first seen in the LASCO/C2 images around 05:36 UTC has now arrived to Earth. No new Earth- directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Fori coronali

The large negative polarity coronal hole spreading from the equatorial bands to mid-latitudes towards the south pole continues to reside on the central meridian. A fast speed stream from it is expected to continuously arrive to Earth in the period Nov 6th - 9th.

Vento solare

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were highly disturbed under the influence of two transients. The first one arrived around noon on Nov 4th and was possibly related to an anticipated glancing blow from a CME, which left the sun on Oct 31st CME. The second transient is marked by a shock arrival at 08:13 UTC on Nov 5th and is probably related to the early arrival of the partial halo CME related to the large filament eruption on Nov 3rd possibly mixed with effects from the partial halo CME launched on Nov 2nd. The first transient had rather low velocity mostly below 350 km/s and increased the interplanetary magnetic field to values of up to 17 nT with a plasma density of up to 53 ppcc. During the ongoing second transient the interplanetary magnetic field has reached values of 39 nT around noon UTC on Nov 5th and the solar wind velocity increased to about 500 km/s. The north-south component remained reached a minimum value of - 27 nT and is currently positive with values close to 40 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field has switched orientations between the positive and negative sectors, with dominating direction towards the Sun. The solar wind conditions are expected to be highly elevated over the next days with the ongoing ICME arrival(s) on Nov 5th and remain elevated thereafter with an anticipated high speed stream arrival on Nov 6th through Nov 9th.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours have registered several periods of isolated minor storms related to two ICME arrivals. Globally moderate storm levels were reached with NOAA Kp reaching 6 in the interval of 09:00 to 12:00 UTC on Nov 5th. Minor to severe geomagnetic storms can be expected for the next 24h under the influence of an ongoing strong ICME arrival. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are likely to continue through Nov 6th and possibly Nov 7th under the influence of the ongoing ICME arrival and an anticipated high speed stream arrival from a negative polarity coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has decreased to low values far below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to decrease to nominal levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 099, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	102 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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