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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2023 Dec 12 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Dec 2023	126	011
13 Dec 2023	124	021
14 Dec 2023	124	018

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C9.1 flare, peaking at 03:38 on Dec 12, associated with the NOAA AR 3514 (beta class). Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3511, that has now rotated out of view over the west limb. NOAA AR 3513 (beta-gamma class) is the most complex region on the disk, but has been quiet. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a chance for isolated M-class flares.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Vento solare

At the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters reflected slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed varied between 310 km/h and 350 km/h; the total interplanetary magnetic field was weak, below 6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was in the negative sector (field towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions became slightly disturbed later on, with the total interplanetary magnetic field reaching the values up to 12 nT at around 11:50 UTC on Dec 12. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -12 nT and 8 nT. The magnetic field orientation has switched to the predominantly positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) since 00:30 UTC on December 12. This is probably associated with the arrival of the expected high speed stream (HSS) from a positive polarity coronal hole. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated in the next days due with the ongoing HSS passage.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods in response to the high-speed stream arrival from a positive polarity coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton was at the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day, with a small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, went above the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours due to the past fast solar wind conditions. It is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low to moderate levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 103, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	102
10cm solar flux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	091 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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