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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2024 Feb 04 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Feb 2024	167	011
05 Feb 2024	175	018
06 Feb 2024	178	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare of the period was a M1.4 flare with peak time 11:53 UTC February 04. This flare originated from the newly numbered NOAA AR 3576, which has just rotated onto disk in the south-east quadrant. This region, although difficult to analyse due to its location near the limb, is large and produced most of the C-class flaring activity over the past days. Catania sunspot group 56 (NOAA AR 3575) showed further growth, is the most complex region on disk (Beta-Gamma-Delta) and produced multiple C-class flares. The remaining regions on disk were either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Vento solare

The solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow solar wind regime for most of the period, with a solar wind speed around 310 km/s and a magnetic field strength around 5nT. At 10:20 UTC February 04, the magnetic field jumped from 5 to 9 nT and the solar wind speed began to gradually increase to above 400 km/s. Bz had a minimum value of -4nT. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation switched multiple times between the negative (field directed towards the Sun) and the positive (field directed away from the Sun) sectors during the period. The solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced on February 04 and 05, due to the combination of the influence of the February 01 CME arrival as well as the high-speed stream associated with the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on January 31.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (local K Bel 0-2 and NOAA Kp 0-1). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions with active conditions possible on February 04 and 05.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained below the 10pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next day.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 131, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	120 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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