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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2024 Mar 03 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Mar 2024	150	019
04 Mar 2024	148	010
05 Mar 2024	150	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6.6 flare with peak time at 12:58 UTC on March 2 (from NOAA AR 3595, beta-gamma). Weaker C-class flares were observed from NOAA ARs 3590, 3595, 3598, and 3600. There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3595 (beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the disk. NOAA AR 3590 has rotated beyond the north-west limb, while NOAA ARs 3592, 3595, and 3597 have decayed to plages. A new active region (NOAA AR 3600) has rotated into the visible disk from the south-east limb and has showed some flaring activity in the past 24 hours. All other regions were inactive. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible, and a small chance for X-class flares.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

Based on currently available coronagraph images, no Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in the past 24 hours.

Fori coronali

The small high latitude southern coronal hole (positive polarity) finished crossing the central meridian in the early hours (UTC) of March 3. No impact from this coronal hole is expected at Earth.

Vento solare

In the past 24 hours, slow solar wind conditions followed by the arrival of an interplanetary structure, most likely related to a coronal mass ejection (CME) from February 28, were observed. Between 12:00 UTC on March 2 and 08:47 UTC on March 3, the solar wind speed remained between 270 km/s and 310 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field was below 4 nT. Around 08:47 UTC on March 3, a fast forward shock was detected in ACE data, leading to jumps in the magnetic field strength (from 2 nT to 5 nT), solar wind speed (from 280 km/s to 330 km/s), density, and temperature. Following the shock, the magnetic field continued to increase and exceeded 18 nT, while the magnetic field Bz (north-south) component reached a minimum of -15 nT. In the past 24 hours, the phi-angle remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun), with a prolonged period in the positive sector (away from the Sun) in the late hours (UTC) of March 2. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to be disturbed under the influence of the interplanetary CME.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally unsettled (Kp 3 and K Bel 3) in the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic conditions are expected in the next 24 hours in relation to the passage of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from the western solar hemisphere.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was slightly enhanced but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold, while the 24h electron fluence was at nominal level. In the next 24 hours, both quantities may increase and exceed their alert thresholds under the influence of the interplanetary structure currently crossing the Earth.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 108, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	102 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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