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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2024 Mar 24 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Major proton event expected (100 pfu at >100 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Mar 2024	200	023
25 Mar 2024	195	013
26 Mar 2024	190	029

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high during the past 24 hours, with more than a dozen M-class flares detected. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3615 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group 22) produced all the M-class flaring activity, with the brightest flare being an M5 yesterday at 14:15 UTC. NOAA AR 3614 did not produce any noticeable activity since the X-ray flare of yesterday 01:33 UTC. More M-class flaring activity is expected from NOAA AR 3615 in the next 24 hours, and there is a reasonable chance for X-class flaring activity from the same AR.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. The halo CME reported yesterday as launched yesterday at 01:33 UTC arrived at the Solar Orbiter (SO) location yesterday at 13:00 UTC. Based on the SO in situ measurements a new estimation of its arrival time to the Earth's environment can be made. It is now expected to reach Earth at the second half of 25 Mar.

Vento solare

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained affected by the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) of 21 Mar and were further disturbed by the arrival of the expected High Speed Stream (HSS). The SW speed increased from 350 to 570 km/s due to arrival of the HSS yesterday at 17:30 UTC. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 2 and 18 nT, while its North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -14 and 11 nT during the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed towards the Sun in the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain affected by the HSS in the next 24 hours, while the influence of the CME has now ended.

Geomagnetism

The global geomagnetic conditions reached moderate storm levels (NOAA Kp 6-) yesterday at the 21:00-00:00 UTC interval and they have since subsided to active levels (NOAA Kp 4-). The local geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm (K BEL 5) levels yesterday between 18:00 and 00:00 UTC and they have now dropped to unsettled levels (K BEL 3). These increases to the K index values are mostly due to the arrival of a Hight Speed Stream (HSS) yesterday at 17:30 UTC. For the next 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at unsettled to active levels as the HSS is expected to continue its effect.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-16, rose further during the last 24 hour and peaked at 840 pfu yesterday at 18:15 UTC. Since then it has dropped to the 350-400 pfu level. This is now classified as a major proton event. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux , as measured by GOES-16, rose above the nominal levels and peaked at 0.4 pfu yesterday at 16:45 UTC. However, it has since subsided to background levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at the major proton event level (i.e. above 100 pfu) in the next 24 hours. Furthermore, there is the probability of another proton event based on the continuing high activity on the solar disk. This includes a small chance of a new increase to the 100 MeV proton flux.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 170, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	209
AK Chambon La Forêt	040
AK Wingst	033
Estimated Ap	035
Estimated international sunspot number	159 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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