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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2024 May 13 1259 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 May 2024	218	013
14 May 2024	210	010
15 May 2024	205	006

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high during the last 24 hours with almost all registered activity emitted from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group 86). The most notable activity was an X1.0 flare detected yesterday at 16:26 UTC, an M6 flare today at 09:44 UTC and an M4 yesterday at 20:32 UTC. NOAA AR 3676 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma) and 3679 (magnetic configuration Alpha) became active during the past 24 hours, producing an M1 flare each. Further M-class flaring activity is expected from NOAA AR 3664 and probably from NOAA AR 3676 and 3679. X-class flaring activity form NOAA AR 3664 is also possible in the next 24 hours.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. Two CME observed yesterday at 02:00 UTC and 03:48 UTC are not likely to be Earth-directed.

Vento solare

During the last 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) speed remained high, however, the magnetic conditions have returned to undisturbed levels. The SW speed dropped from 980 to 620 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 3 to 11 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 9 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed away from the Sun. In the next 24 hours the SW speed is expected to drop gradually and the geomagnetic conditions to remain mild. One or two glancing blows from passing Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) are expected in the next 24 hours, but they will most likely have a very minor effect.

Geomagnetism

The global geomagnetic conditions reached moderate storm levels (NOAA Kp 6- to 6+) during the period from 12 May 21:00 UTC to 13 May 06:00 UTC but they have since dropped to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3-). The local geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (K BEL 5) yesterday at 21:00-24:00 UTC but they also now dropped to unsettled (K BEL 3) levels. In the next 24 hours, they are likely to remain at the same levels and possibly increase to active levels (K=4) for short periods of time, both globally and locally.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, continue its drop and was below the 10 pfu threshold level during the last 24 hours. It is likely that it will continue its gradual drop in the next 24 hours, however, there is a chance of a new proton event and an increase in flux above the alert level.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert level during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 227, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 12 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	222
AK Chambon La Forêt	044
AK Wingst	046
Estimated Ap	056
Estimated international sunspot number	186 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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