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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2024 May 15 1252 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 May 2024	208	013
16 May 2024	202	012
17 May 2024	192	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high during the last 24 hours with three X-class flares detected during the last 24 hours. The brightest flare was a long-lasting X8.7 emited from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group 86) yesterday at 16:51 UTC. The same AR produced the rest of the X-class flare activity, namely an X3.4 that peaked today at 08:37 UTC and an X1.2 that peaked yesterday at 12:55 UTC. NOAA AR 3682 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 7) was also active during the past 24 hours with its brightest flare being an M4 yesterday at 17:38 UTC. Although NOAA AR 3664 is expected to remain highly active, it is currently rotating behind the west solar limb and its activity will be significantly obscured in the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 3682 is expected to continue its activity at an M-class level during the next 24 hours. Isolated X-class events are still possible, either from NOAA AR 3664 or 3682.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) with possibly Earth-directed components can be seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images as launched yesterday. A better estimation will be made as more data become available.

Vento solare

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are gradually returning to the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed dropped from 590 to 490 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 3 and 5 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 4 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed away from the Sun. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to arrive at Earth today and disturb the SW conditions.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally unsettled to quiet (NOAA Kp 3- to 1 and K BEL 3 to 2) during the past 24 hours. In the next 24 hours they are expected to reach active levels as a result of the expected arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, remained well above the 10 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours. This is proven to be a long-lasting proton event, thus the proton flux is expected to remain above the alert level for most, if not all, of the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, remained at the 1000 pfu alert level during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain approximately at this level for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence increased to moderate levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected remain at the moderate level in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 190, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 14 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	220
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	186 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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