Emesso: 2024 May 21 1233 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
21 May 2024 | 200 | 007 |
22 May 2024 | 198 | 007 |
23 May 2024 | 196 | 007 |
There are six visible ARs on the solar disk. Flaring activity has been low, only C-class flares were observed in the last 24 hours. The strongest one was a C4.8 flare from NOAA AR 3683 (beta magnetic field configuration). NOAA AR 3685 has beta-gamma magnetic field configuration and has evolved in size and complexity. More C-class flares will occur and M-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours.
No Earth directed CME has been observed in the last 24 hours. After further analysis, the CME from 20 May is not expected to affect the Earth.
The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 380 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 6 nT. There are low chances of a glancing blow from the CME on 17 May, otherwise slow wind conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.
Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). If we see a glancing blow from the 17 May CME (low chances), disturbed conditions may occur, otherwise quiet conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.
The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours, it is expected to remain so.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 166, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 179 |
10cm solar flux | 200 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 010 |
AK Wingst | 008 |
Estimated Ap | 008 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 144 - Based on 33 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nessuna |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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