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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2024 Jul 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Jul 2024	243	012
17 Jul 2024	240	008
18 Jul 2024	235	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the past 24 hours with two M-class flares detected. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3744 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 96) emitted an M1.4 flare at 16 Jul 03:01 UTC and NOAA AR 3753 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 8) an M3.6 at 16 Jul 07:37 UTC. NOAA AR 3738 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group no 85) retained its magnetic complexity but only emitted a C4 flare at 15 Jul 16:17 UTC. NOAA AR 3751 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group no 12) increased in size and complexity and produced the third brightest event of the past 24 hours, a C7 flare at 15 Jul 20:08 UTC. For the next 24 hours isolated M-class flare(s) are expected, either from NOAA AR 3751, 3753, 3744, or 3738.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Fori coronali

The negative polarity, northern Coronal Hole (CH) continued its crossing of the central meridian during the past 24 hours.

Vento solare

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions featured the arrival of a glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at 15 Jul 21:30 UTC. The SW speed increased from 290 to 390 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) increased from 1 to 18 nT as a result of the arrival. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -10 and 13 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun before the event and turned to mostly directed towards the Sun after the arrival. The SW conditions are expected to return to the slow SW regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

During the past 24 hours global geomagnetic conditions reached unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3 at 16 Jul 00:00-03:00 UTC and Kp 3+ at 16 Jul 03:00-06:00 UTC) because of a glancing blow delivered by a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Locally the impart was stronger as active conditions were registered (K BEL 4 at 16 Jul 00:00-03:00 UTC). As the glancing blow is expected to wane in the next 24 hours, only unsettled to quiet conditions are expected to register both globally and locally.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 285, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Jul 2024

Wolf number Catania	275
10cm solar flux	233
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	242 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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