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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2024 Sep 03 1259 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Sep 2024	239	008
04 Sep 2024	238	008
05 Sep 2024	237	019

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at high level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and six M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M2.9 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3807 which peaked at 13:43 UTC on Sep 02. During the flare, the source region (AR 3807) of the flare had beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. All flarings during the past 24 hours were produced by AR 3807 and AR 3813. NOAA AR 3806, AR 3807, and AR 3813 are the complex regions on the disk (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, possibly with few M-class flares and a chance for isolated X-class flares.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronograph images around 08:12 UTC on Sep 03. This CME possibly had a source region on the farside of the Sun, and it is therefore not expected to arrive at Earth. Another narrow CME, with an angular width of about 60 deg, first appeared in the C2 field of view around 14:33 UTC on Sep 02. This CME was possibly associated with the M2.9 flare, which peaked at 13:43 UTC on Sep 02, produced by NOAA AR 3807. It is directed towards SE, and so it is not expected to arrive at Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Fori coronali

A small negative polarity coronal hole (CH), spanning 30 - 50 S, has crossed the central meridian, and the high-speed stream from this CH may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Sep 5-6. Another small positive polarity CH, spanning 25 - 35 N, has started to cross the central meridian on Sep 02. The high-speed stream from this CH is expected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Sep 6-8.

Vento solare

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 365 km/s and 495 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 5 nT and 12 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K-Dourbes 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is still enhanced but it remains below the 10 pfu threshold level. The greater than 50 MeV GOES proton flux and the greater than 100 MeV GOES proton flux started to increase around 09:10 UTC on Sep 03, but they remain below the 10 pfu threshold level. This is possibly associated with the halo coronal mass ejection observed around 08:12 UTC on Sep 03, which most likely had its source on the Sun's farside. The proton flux is expected to remain elevated, but below the threshold level in the coming hours. Still, there is a possibility to exceed the threshold level if there are any further high energy flares and eruptions.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 180, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	271
10cm solar flux	238
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	199 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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