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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2025 Feb 22 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Feb 2025	197	007
23 Feb 2025	199	022
24 Feb 2025	201	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was an M3.3 flare (SIDC Flare 3666) peaking on February 21 at 12:15 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 409 (NOAA Active Region 4000). This AR was numbered on 21 February is growing in size and complexity and is driving most of the current flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

There were two wide CMEs detected on 21 February. One to the north first seen by LASCO C2 at 04:00 UTC, and one towards the west first seen at 11:00 UTC, they are not expected to arrive to the Earth.

Vento solare

The solar wind speed at Earth has decreased to 300 km/s over the past 24 hours, with the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude currently around 5 nT. Similar slow solar wind conditions are expected to persist for the next 24 hours. However, low-latency data from the MAG instrument onboard Solar Orbiter (located at 0.7 AU from the Sun and 20 degrees east of Earth) shows an increase in the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude, currently reaching 40 nT at that location. This may indicate an earlier arrival to the Earth (on 23 February) of the CME that left the Sun early on 20 February, rather than the previously predicted arrival on 24 February.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel up to 3). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours, with possible disturbed conditions if the CME from 20 February arrives.

Proton flux levels

There was a slight increase in the 10 MeV proton flux, starting around 16:00 UTC on 21 February, related to the flaring and CME activity. Nevertheless, the increase was mild and the proton flux remained below the threshold level. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, but a warning condition has been raised since it is possible for the flux to increase.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and 18 electron flux has been below the threshold in the last 24 hours It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 173, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Feb 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	197
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	156 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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