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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2025 Feb 28 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Feb 2025	168	041
01 Mar 2025	166	029
02 Mar 2025	164	015

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. The strongest activity was an impulsive C9.3-flare (SIDC Flare 3718) with peak time 23:24 UTC on Feb 27, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 405 (NOAA Active Region 3996) from behind the west limb. This region was responsible for the majority of the observed flaring activity within the reported 24h interval. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998), classified as magnetic type beta-gamma, has been the main contributor to the on disc flaring activity, producing C7.2-flare with peak time 15:08 UTC on Feb 27. The region continues to produce low level of activity as it rotates over the west limb. Other notable regions are SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 4006) and SIDC Sunspot Group 409 (NOAA Active Region 4000). Both regions are classified as magnetic type beta-gamma, but have not produced any significant flaring. SIDC Sunspot Group 417 and SIDC Sunspot Group 418 have exhibited some increase in magnetic complexity, but have remained rather small and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with likely M-class flares and a small chance for an isolated X-class flaring.

Espulsioni di massa coronale

A filament eruption in the north-east quadrant was detected in the SDO/AIA 30.4 nm imagery around 18:00 UTC on Feb 27. An associated slow coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible in LASCO/C2 imagery around 19:12 UTC. The CME is not expected to arrive at Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs are observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Vento solare

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected highly disturbed solar wind conditions related to ongoing high speed stream (HSS) arrival. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, was moderate with a maximum value of 13.4 nT and a minimum Bz of -10.7 nT. The solar wind speed was relatively high, reaching a maximum of 756 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) reflecting the polarity of the geo-effective coronal holes. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed over the next few days under the ongoing influence of high speed streams, possibly mixed with a glancing blow arrival on Feb 28.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours varied between unsettled and minor storm levels. Unsettled conditions to minor storm levels with likely isolated moderate geomagnetic storms might be expected on Feb 28 with an ongoing high speed stream arrival and a possible glancing blow ICME arrival. Unsettled conditions to minor geomagnetic storm levels are expected to continue throughout Mar 01 with remaining chances of isolated moderate geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decease to quiet to active levels on Mar 02. Quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected for Mar 03.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has returned to nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours. It is expected to increase and exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the upcoming days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and might increase towards moderate levels on Mar 01.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 106, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Feb 2025

Wolf number Catania	158
10cm solar flux	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	050
AK Wingst	029
Estimated Ap	032
Estimated international sunspot number	124 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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