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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Dec 15 1229 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Dec 2014	166	013
16 Dec 2014	166	022
17 Dec 2014	166	017

Bulletin

The Sun released one M flare and ten C flares during the past 24 hours. The M1.6 flare (which peaked at 19:33 UT) and almost all C flares were produced by NOAA AR 2242. In the next 24 hours, C flaring is expected, with probability for an M flare around 40%. Over the last 24 hours, solar wind speed observed by ACE increased from about 430 to 480 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) increased from about 6 to 10 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3). Quiet to active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on December 15, as well as on December 16 and 17 when we expect the arrival of a high speed stream associated with an equatorial coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 116, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	109 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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