Випущено: 2015 Jan 11 1238 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
11 Jan 2015 | 156 | 007 |
12 Jan 2015 | 160 | 007 |
13 Jan 2015 | 165 | 007 |
Solar activity was low with only low level C flaring. The strongest flare came from Catania region 49 (NOAA 2253) peaking at 5:43 UT at C4,2 level. Catania region 50 (NOAA 2257) produced 2 long duration C3 flares. A C3.4 flare peaking at 9:42 UT and a C3.3 flare peaking at 2:53 UT. The region emerging yesterday at the solar equator was numbered as NOAA 2262. New sunspot emergence was observed southeast of Catania 51 (NOAA 2255). Flaring at C level is expected to continue, with a chance for an M level flare. We await further coronagraph data for assessment a possible CME's associated with the long duration C3 flares. Solar wind speed increased steadily over the period from around 425 km/s to over 500 km/s with also a period of higher velocities up to 620 km/s. Total magnetic field was in the 7 to 10 nT range, and presently around 8 nT. Bz was variable within the +/-8 nT range. The magnetic field Phi angle was positive during the period. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-3). Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced and geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with some active periods possible.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 089, based on 09 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 152 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 014 |
AK Wingst | 010 |
Estimated Ap | 010 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 088 - Based on 11 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Немає |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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