Випущено: 2015 Feb 10 1251 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
10 Feb 2015 | 145 | 010 |
11 Feb 2015 | 144 | 007 |
12 Feb 2015 | 143 | 014 |
The Solar activity is currently active. Solar flaring activity was moderate. AR 2282 located on the Eastern hemisphere (E51) produced an M2.4 flare on 2015-Feb-09 peaking at 23:35. In addition, several low level C class flares occurred in the past 24 hours, originating from NOAA regions 2277, 2280, 2281 and 2282. The M flare had a halo CME associated with it. The CME was first observed in LASCO-C2 and C3 coronagraphs at 23:24 UT on 2015-Feb-09 and the main component propagated to the East with an estimated velocity of approximately 1000 km/s. Although the CME is largely moving to the East a shock front may interact with the Earth raising KP to 3-5. The flank of the CME is expected to arrive at Earth on 2015-Feb-13 00:00 UT +/- 12 hours. Flaring is expected to be active with several C class flares, and the possibility of M class flares. The Halo CME may increase the proton activity level. Solar wind speed is fairly constant, at around 450 km/s. The density has seen a small fluctuation and there appears a small rotation in the magnetic field. Total magnetic field remained constant around 6 nT. Bz was variable fluctuating with negative peaks down to -5 nT. The phi angle was positive. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3, local K Dourbes 0-3). Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist and possibly enhanced in 24-36 hours if the CME/shock front produced at 23:24 UT on 2015-Feb-09 interacts with the Earth. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period possible.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 060, based on 11 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 146 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 014 |
AK Wingst | 010 |
Estimated Ap | 009 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 061 - Based on 11 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09 | 2302 | 2335 | 0012 | ---- | M2.3 | --/---- | |||
09 | 2219 | 2335 | 0016 | S08W33 | M2.4 | SF | --/2282 | VI/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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