Перегляд архіву середа, 11 лютого 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Feb 11 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Feb 2015	138	007
12 Feb 2015	135	019
13 Feb 2015	132	011

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was quiet. There were several small C-class flares in the past 24 hours, largely from AR 2282 located in the Eastern hemisphere (E43). AR 2282 produced the largest flare, a C1.5 class flare on February 10, 2015 near 14:06 UTC. Previously active NOAA AR 2277 has moved onto the Western hemisphere limb. NOAA ARs 2280 and 2281 appear stable. All ARs are largelly stable with small amounts of flux emergence. There is a large filament located between S50E20 and S10W50, however this has remained stable. Flaring is expected to continue at the C-class level with the possibility of an M-class flare. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed has been roughly constant with small fluctuations around 400 km/s. The total magnetic field has been stable around 6 nT, however the Bz component has been variable, ranging between +5 and -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3, local K Dourbes 1-2). Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist and possibly enhanced in 12-24 hours if the CME/shock front produced at 23:24 UT on 2015-Feb-09 interacts with the Earth. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 044, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Feb 2015

Wolf number Catania	074
10cm solar flux	141
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	059 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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