Випущено: 2015 Jun 14 1230 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
14 Jun 2015 | 135 | 018 |
15 Jun 2015 | 130 | 013 |
16 Jun 2015 | 125 | 007 |
Eight C-class and one M-class flares were observed in the past period. The activity, including an M2.0 flare peaking at 00:59 UT, was mainly originating from Catania sunspot region 79 (NOAA active region 2360). Also Catania regions 87, 85 and 81 (NOAA AR 2367, 2365 and 2362 respectively) were contributing. More C-class flares are expected, with likely an isolated M-class flare. As Catania region 79 is close to the west limb, we set a warning condition for an enhancement of the proton flux. A filament in the northeast quadrant partly erupted at around 7:00 UT. Current coronagraphic images only indicate a very narrow accompanying CME (first measurement in LASCO/C2 at 7:24 UT) travelling to the north. No Earth-directed CME was observed.
The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) started at 5 nT, but became more variable from 20 UT on June 13 with values in the range 5-12 nT. The solar wind speed slightly increased from the range of 440-520 km/s to currently 580 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K=2) to unsettled (K=3), with a few time slots this UT morning of active (K=4) levels. A few more time slots of active levels are expected for the next day.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 071, based on 12 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 136 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 019 |
AK Wingst | 010 |
Estimated Ap | 011 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 077 - Based on 25 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 | 0052 | 0059 | 0109 | N14W73 | M2.0 | SF | 79/2360 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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