Перегляд архіву субота, 11 липня 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Jul 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jul 2015	125	021
12 Jul 2015	122	018
13 Jul 2015	120	009

Bulletin

NOAA 2385 (Catania 11) produced the only flare of the period: a C1 flare peaking at 16:13UT. The other sunspot regions were quiet. No obvious Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed. A 90 degrees wide CME first observed by LASCO/C2 at 16:24UT was the result of longlasting filamentary activity at and beyond the northwest solar limb. The bulk of the ejected material was directed well north of the ecliptic and away from Earth.

There remains a chance on an isolated C-class flare.

Initially, solar wind speed was stable around 350 km/s. A gradual increase started around 20:00UT, under the influence of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR). Current solar wind speeds seem slightly in decline from the maximum values near 640 km/s around 10:00UT. A sharp drop in particle density was observed shortly before 23:00UT, from an average of about 50-60 per cm3 to 4-7 per cm3. The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field turned away from the Sun between 22:00-23:00UT. Both are consistent with the proper arrival of the high speed stream (HSS) from the equatorial coronal hole. Bz fluctuated between -14 and +14 nT, but has been varying between much smaller values since 07:00UT (mostly between -6 and +6 nT).

As expected, active geomagnetic conditions were observed in Dourbes under the effects of the CIR and HSS. Globally, the NOAA Kp reached minor storming conditions during the 21:00-24:00 and 03:00-06:00 periods. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist, with a minor storming episode not excluded.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 096, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jul 2015

Wolf number Catania	118
10cm solar flux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	118 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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