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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Feb 13 1254 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Feb 2016	111	013
14 Feb 2016	109	016
15 Feb 2016	107	030

Bulletin

Four C-class flares were reported in the past 24 hours, all in the NOAA AR 2497. The strongest flare was the C6.8 flare peaking at 17:21 UT yesterday. NOAA AR 2497 maintains beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, so we expect flaring activity on the M-level. The Earth is currently inside the trailing part of the ICME, with the solar wind speed around 380 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude around 10 nT. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K < 4) in the coming hours, possibly with isolated intervals of active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4). Late on February 14 - early on February 15 we expect the arrival of the ICME associated with the halo CME observed on the Sun on February 11. A minor to moderate geomagnetic storm (K around 5 to 6) may be expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 034, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Feb 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	112
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	067 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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