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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Feb 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Feb 2016	108	010
15 Feb 2016	106	028
16 Feb 2016	108	013

Bulletin

Only two sunspot groups were reported by NOAA today. The NOAA AR 2497 maintains beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It produced most of the C-class flares of the past 24 hours and the M1.8 flare peaking at 15:24 UT yesterday. We expect flaring activity on the C-level, with an isolated M-class flare from the NOAA AR 2497. A low- latitude extension of the southern polar coronal hole reached the solar central meridian yesterday. The associated fast solar wind steam is expected to arrive at the Earth on February 16. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 380 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (6-7 nT). The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so in the coming hours. Late today or early tomorrow we expect the arrival of the ICME associated with the halo CME observed on the Sun on February 11. A minor to moderate geomagnetic storm (K around 5 to 6) may be expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 054, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Feb 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	036 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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