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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Feb 15 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Feb 2016	110	027
16 Feb 2016	110	019
17 Feb 2016	110	020

Bulletin

Five C flares and two M flares were released by NOAA AR 2497 in the past 24 hours. The brightest flare was the M1.1 flare which peaked at 11:00 UT on February 15. It is not clear yet whether this flare was accompagnied by a CME, since no coronagraph data are available yet. More M flares (probability 60%) and C flares (probability 95%) are expected within the next 24 hours, especially from AR 2497. Solar wind speed varied between about 350 and 450 km/s in the past 24 hours, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ranged between 2 and 9 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5-6) are possible on February 15, upon the expected arrival of the CME from February 11. The expected arrival of the high speed stream associated with a large southern coronal hole may cause active (K Dourbes = 4) to minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) levels on February 16 and 17.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 055, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Feb 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	053 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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