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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Feb 16 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Feb 2016	105	026
17 Feb 2016	105	024
18 Feb 2016	105	010

Bulletin

Fourteen C flares were released by NOAA AR 2497 in the past 24 hours. The brightest flare was a C4.2 flare which peaked at 17:52 UT on February 15. M flares (probability 50%) and C flares (probability 85%) are possible within the next 24 hours, especially from AR 2497. The solar wind speed measured by ACE has been gradually rising from values near 410 km/s around 4h UT on February 16, and started a sharp rise around 10h UT towards a maximum of 570 km/s around 11h UT. Current values are near 530 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has been near 15 nT since about 5h UT. This may correspond to the interaction region in front of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4). Active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on February 16 and 17, as a result of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream. Active geomagnetic levels are possible on February 18.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 046, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Feb 2016

Wolf number Catania	059
10cm solar flux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	054 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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