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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2021 May 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 May 2021	076	004
09 May 2021	077	005
10 May 2021	076	005

Bulletin

Solar activity reached moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The newly numbered NOAA AR 2822 (Catania sunspot group 93, mag. configuration Beta) produced an M3.9 flare, which peaked at 19:04 UT May 07. This is the only active region on the solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be generally low over the next 24 hours, with a chance of C-class flares and a very low probability of another M-class flare.

A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) associated with the M3.9 flare, which was observed by STEREO-A/COR2 from 19:53 UT with a speed of around 600 km/s, is not initially considered to be Earth directed. A full analysis will be made when LASCO data becomes available. No other Earth CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Earth is currently under the influence of the slow solar wind. The solar wind speed ranged between 290 to 340 km/s over the past 24 hours. The Bz component fluctuated between -4 and +6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to reflect a slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours. Slight enhancements in the solar wind speed are possible from May 09 due to the influence of a series of small negative polarity coronal holes.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-2) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 014, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 07 May 2021

Wolf number Catania	013
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	012 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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