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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2021 May 09 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 May 2021	077	004
10 May 2021	076	007
11 May 2021	076	003

Bulletin

Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 2822 (Catania sunspot group 93, mag. configuration Beta-gamma) produced three C-class flares, the largest of which was a C8.6 flare that peaked at 18:45 UT May 08. This is the only active region on the solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be generally low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely and a low probability of an M-class flare.

A filament stretching from the south east quadrant towards the central meridian began to erupt from 09:20 UT May 09, as seen in SDO/AIA 304. Due to the location of the filament, any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) may have an Earth directed component. A full analysis will be carried out when coronagraph data become available. No other Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Earth is currently under the influence of the slow solar wind. The solar wind speed ranged between 300 to 340 km/s over the past 24 hours. The Bz component fluctuated between -2 and +5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to reflect a slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours. Slight enhancements in the solar wind speed are possible due to the influence of a series of small negative polarity coronal holes.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-2) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 017, based on 24 stations.

Solar indices for 08 May 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	076
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	015 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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