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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jan 15 1252 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Jan 2022	109	017
16 Jan 2022	107	004
17 Jan 2022	105	001

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels but frequent during the last 24 hours. NOAA Active Regions (ARs) 2924 and 2925 (Catania groups 1 and 2) produced one C-class flare each and the AR expected to rotate into Earth's view at N30 produced five C-class flares over the past 24 hours. Numerous ARs are now visible on disk: NOAA ARs 2924-2931 (Catania groups 1-8) and Catania group 9. However, only NOAA ARs 2924, 2925, 2927 have a fair chance of producing C-class flares in the next 24 hours. The expected AR (possibly NOAA AR 2918 returning to Earth's view) remains active and is capable of producing one or more M-class flares and has a small chance for an X-class flare for the next 24 hours.

An Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was detected by LASCO-C2/SOHO and CORR2/STEREO-A at 14 Jan 13:40 UT. It has an estimated speed of 1100 km/s and is expected to arrive on Earth late at 17 Jan.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions, as measured by DSCOVR and ACE, are under the influence of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) that arrived at 14/1 14:00 UT. The SW speed increased from 350 to 400 km/s over the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) increased to 18 nT before the arrival of the ICME and has now dropped to 2 nT. Its Bz component dropped to -18 nT before the arrival and then varied between -10 and 10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) over the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to slowly return to a slow wind regime during the next 24 hours.

A moderate global geomagnetic storm (NOAA Kp index 6) was detected for the synoptic period of 14 Jan 21:00-24:00 UT and then decreased to a minor global geomagnetic storm (NOAA Kp index 5) for the synoptic period of 15 Jan 00:00-03:00 UT. During the same period the local conditions were at the level of a minor storm (K BEL index 5). Since then conditions have return to quiet levels both globally and locally (NOAA Kp and K BEL indeces 2) and are expected to remain at quiet levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 092, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	120
10cm solar flux	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	100 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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