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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jan 16 1246 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Jan 2022	117	012
17 Jan 2022	113	004
18 Jan 2022	110	001

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels during the last 24 hours, with four C-class flares detected, all below the C2 level. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2932 produced two of the flares, while NOAA ARs 2924 and 2930 (Catania groups 1 and 7) produced the other two. Out of the eight ARs now visible on the solar disk, only NOAA ARs 2924, 2927, 2930, (Catania groups 1, 4, 7) and NOAA AR 2932 are expected to produce more C-class flares during the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 2932 has also produced M-class flares in the recent past, so there is a small chance of producing an isolated even in the next 24 hours.

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was detected on LASCO-C2/SOHO data at 15/1 06:12. It appears to be a back-sided CME, however more information will be reported as more data become available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind (SW) conditions as observed by DSCOVR and ACE feature the influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the crossing of the solar meridian of a Coronal Hole (CH) on Jan 13. The SW speed increased from 440 to 640 km/s and then dropped to 500 km/h over the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) increased to 14 nT and has since 3 nT. Its Bz component varied between -10 and 11 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) over the last 24 hours. The effects of the HSS on the solar wind are now over and it is expected to slowly return to a slow wind regime during the next 24 hours.

A minor global geomagnetic storm (NOAA Kp index 5) was detected for the synoptic period of 15 Jan 21:00-24:00 UT. During the same period the local conditions were at the active level (K BEL index 4). Since then conditions have gradually returned moderate levels globally (NOAA Kp index 3) and quiet locally (K BEL index 2). They are expected to return to quiet levels both globally and locally in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 101, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	116
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	094 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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