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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jan 31 1256 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Jan 2022	130	012
01 Feb 2022	129	015
02 Feb 2022	130	030

Bulletin

Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Active Region (AR) 2936 (Catania sunspot group 17, Mag. configuration:beta) and newly emerged AR 2940 (Mag. configuration:beta) have been most active, producing C-class flares, including two C2.7 class flares, which peaked at jan 30 120:13UT and Jan 31 03:50 UT. AR NOAA 2934 (Catania sunspot group 13) is about to rotate off the visible disk. Newly emerged AR 2940 (Mag. configuration:beta) has rounded the south-east limb. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected with a possibility of M-class flares.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold on Jan 31 1110 UT in response to the high solar wind speed associated with the Coronal Hole (CH) crossing Central Meridian (CM) on Jan 26. It is expected to remain about threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was about to moderate levels but is expected to be about moderate levels during the next period.

Over the past 24 hours, the total magnetic field had values between 4 and 6nT. Its southward component Bz dropped from +3 nT to -5 nT. The solar wind speed has remained elevated, ranging from 450 to 535 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was varied, being in the positive sector sector (directed way from the Sun) since about Jan 30 03:00UT . Over the next 24 hours, we are expecting the High Speed Stream (HSS) emanating from the equatorial positive negative polarity Coronal Hole (CH) at the SW quadrant. A negative polarity equatorial C H will be at Central Meridian on Feb 01-02.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and K-BEL 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next 24 hours due to the aforementioned HSS. We are awaiting the CME from Jan 30 to reach Earth on Feb 02, with a possibility of storm conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 075, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	087 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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