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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Feb 01 1248 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Feb 2022	130	005
02 Feb 2022	130	039
03 Feb 2022	131	016

Bulletin

Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Active Region (AR) 2936 (Catania sunspot group 17, Mag. configuration:beta) has been most active, producing a C8.6 flare, peaking at Feb 01 07:44UT AR Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected with a possibility of M-class flares and a slight chance of X-class flares.

A Coronal Mass Ejection has been detected by Cactus on Feb 01 07:48UT, with a reported speed of 1067 km/s but with small angular width of 30 degrees. This seems to be associated with the C8.6-class flare. More will be reported as more data become available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours, with a possible increase at the time of arrival of the expected CME from Jan 30. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased, returning to numbers below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It is expected to decease further 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels but is expected to be about moderate levels during the next period.

Over the past 24 hours, the total magnetic field had values between 3 and 7nT. Its southward component Bz fluctuated between -5 and +6 nT. The solar wind speed decreased, down to 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector sector (directed way from the Sun) . At the end of the period of the next 24 hours, we are expecting the effects from the CME taking place on Jan 30.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and K-BEL 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next 24 hours due to the expected CME influence, leading to a possibility of storm conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 088, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 31 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	070
10cm solar flux	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	074 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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