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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Feb 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Feb 2022	109	018
14 Feb 2022	108	019
15 Feb 2022	108	011

Bulletin

The strongest activity of the period was on the Western limb with two successive flares peaking at C9.2 magnitude at 17:08UT and at C8 magnitude at 17:26UT. The first was from Catania group 21 (NOAA region 2940) in the North and the second from Catania group 29 (NOAA region 2944) in the South. Both these regions have now rounded the Western limb. The remaining regions on disc are Catania group 26 (NOAA region 2941), which produced a C6.1 flare this morning peaking at 1:47UT. The region developed mixed polarity spots in the trailing area and is now classified as beta-gamma type. Catania group 32 (NOAA region 2945) first showed some growth but it appears to be slowly dissolving now. Catania group 33 (NOAA region 2946) showed consolidation of the dominant leading spot but a reduction in the trailing spots. C flaring is likely with also a chance for an M flare especially from Catania group 26 (NOAA region 2941).

The period following yesterdays M flare is poorly covered by coronagraph imagery from Earth perspective. SoHO LASCO C3 data starting from 14:30UT after a data gap seems to indicate though that the CME was sufficiently off to the West off the Sun-Earth line, and that it will not reach Earth. Another (South-)Westward CME was observed related to the C8 flare and it too is not expected to reach Earth. Other CMEs observed in coronagraph data are propagating to the East, both from Earth and STEREO A perspective, and hence are also not expected to reach Earth. No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was mostly below but recently close to the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The threshold is expected to be exceeded today. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the next period. An increasing trend is expected given the ongoing high speed stream Solar wind conditions.

Solar wind conditions remained elevated under the ongoing high speed stream environment. Solar wind speed decreased slightly from fluctuating around 550km/s to fluctuating around 510km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude dropped from 7.5nT to under 5nT with a variable North-South orientation. The magnetic field phi angle was stable, indicating connection with a negative sector (magnetic field toward the Sun). Elevated Solar wind conditions are expected to persist for the next 24-48 hours but slowly decreasing.

An isolated period of active geomagnetic conditions was recorded around midnight. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 047, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	056 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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