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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Mar 12 1256 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Mar 2022	122	013
13 Mar 2022	118	012
14 Mar 2022	118	034

Bulletin

The solar activity over the past 24 hours reached moderate levels with multiple C-class flares and an impulsive M2.2-class flare (start time 22:13 UT, end time 22:38 UT and peak time 22:32 UT on March 11th), produces by active region NOAA 2964 (beta) from near the south-west limb. Two C-class flares were produced by NOAA 2964 and six low C-class flares were produced by NOAA 2965 (beta), which remains the largest and most complex active region on the visible solar disc. The rest of the active regions did not produce any significant flaring activity. NOAA 2960 (beta) remained stable. NOAA 2962 has decayed into plage. NOAA 2957 (alpha) and NOAA 2966 (beta) have remained inactive and are approaching the west limb. Two other new active regions which were flaring from behind the east limb in the past have now rotated onto the visible disc, but appear to have decayed and become magnetically simple. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with sustained chance for more M-class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the past 24 hours. The CMEs from the night of March 9th and March 10th are expected to arrive late on March 13th or early March 14th.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux which was elevated yesterday due to the long-duration C2.8-class flaring on March 10th has now returned to background levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours with remaining chances for slightly enhanced fluxes should more significant flaring occur. With the ICME arrivals on March 10th the greater than 2MeV electron flux was reduced to very low values, well under the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2MeV electron flux is expected to remain under the 1000 pfu thresholds for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels in next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained under the influence of the mix of ICMEs, the first of which arrived to Earth in the afternoon of March 10th. The solar wind velocity was mostly stable weakly varying in the range of 347 to 428 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained enhanced with a maximum value of 12 nT and a minimum value of the Bz component of -9.8 nT. The B field was switching orientation between the positive and negative sectors, the density has decreased and the temperature was enhanced. The solar wind conditions have currently returned to background levels and are expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly unsettled with several isolated active periods locally in Belgium due to the remaining influence of the ICMEs. Two isolated minor storm conditions were registered globally between 21 UT on March 11th and 03 UT on March 12th. The geomagnetic conditions have currently returned to quiet levels. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with remaining minor chance for isolated active periods. Unsettled to active conditions with minor and moderate storms are possible during the night of March 13th and throughout March 14th with the foreseen arrival of more ICMEs. Active conditions with minor or moderate storms are expected to persists throughout March 15th when the ICME effect could be mixed with the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian 1.5 days ago.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 082, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Mar 2022

Wolf number Catania	121
10cm solar flux	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	024
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	088 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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